Plenary Talk

• Title: Statistical Analyses in China Customs Targeting
• Presenter: Professor Hua Zhongsheng, University of Science and Technology of China, China
• Abstract:
  Outline of the address:

  1. Characteristics of Customs targeting problem
  1. Dynamic nature on smuggling
  2. Indicative of inspection
  3. On-line decision making
  4. Risk decision making problem
  5. Text based decision making problem
  6. Many department regulations and national/regional tax/tariff agreements
  2. Difficulties in Customs targeting decisions
  1. Incomplete/inconsistent information
  2. Heterogeneous historical observations
  3. Constraints on decision execution capacity
  3. Statistical Analyses in Customs targeting
  1. Information preprocessing
  2. Define observable criteria from text
  3. Estimating empirical probability of smuggling
  4. Smuggling density forecast
  5. Risk decision rules
  4. Application in China Customs Targeting
  1. Empirical studies
  2. Implementation of CCTS (China Customs Targeting System)
  5. Conclusions and Future Research

Presented jointly by
the Department of Statistics and Finance, University of Science and Technology of China and the Forum for Interdisciplinary Mathematics.

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